See all that? That’s just a few of the wide receivers that I should be starting over my first round fantasy draft pick. Just a sampling of the other thirty two more productive options out there. Five are actually on the waver wire right now. I’m 2-2, and my fantasy “stud” can’t even hack a double digit point a week average? Do I honestly have to have a sit down with Eli, before tonight’s crucial matchup?
Oooooh, baby. Brady is back, and if you think I’m taking a single spread against this man for the rest of the year, then go right ahead in believing such nonsense. So, there’s your heads up people. ERF ALERT LEVEL 10 for all future Patriots lines. You’ve been warned for the Week 10 Sunday Nighter.
Today we will talk about The Residual Effect, which is a great lesson that can also be applied to any aspect of life where you define yourself by your past thoughts and actions. This is one of the core flawed sports betting philosophies, which created The George Costanza Opposite Theory.
Whatever you think is supposed to happen on paper between two teams, due to the results of previous encounters, or recent slumps or skids, is actually your greatest philosophical nemesis when trying to pick a winner.
How many of you clocked my Week 3 at 4-2? Well done, but we went 5-1, actually.
Wait, you say? Weren’t you going into MNF at 2-1, and then the Golden Rule of the Domino Effect cost you a perfect night due to the SNF over hitting? Well, no. The only thing that can top The Golden Rule is The House Cross Over.
BEARS +6.5(-115) @ DALLAS -6.5(-105)
DEZ BRYANT VS CHI
EMOTIONAL RED FLAG ALERT: 9
PICK: COWBOYS -6.5(-105) & UNDER 44.5[over(-115)]
OPEN CLASSIFICATION: PEOPLES FAVORITE CROSS(PFC)
FANTASY FACTOR: NONE
JUMP SHIP AUDIBLE:
Audible accordingly to The House Over if the public jumps on the UNDER 44.5 right before kickoff.
FALCONS +3(-125) @ SAINTS -3(+105)
MARK INGRAM VS.ATL
JULIO JONES @ NO
EMOTIONAL RED FLAG ALERT: 0
PICK: SAINTS -3(+105) & OVER 53.5(-115)
OPEN CLASSIFICATION: HOUSE FAVORITE PEOPLES CROSS(HFPC)
FANTASY FACTOR: 0
JUMP SHIP AUDIBLE: If the public hits the SNF Side action then we audible accordingly to The House Side bet. If we take The House Side bet, then I want us to ride with the people on our first MNF Over. If The House wins their side bet on SNF then we can stick with a public side on MNF.
Goodnight, and good luck.
Yeah. That’s right. I emotionally hedged the BEARS -3. What of it?
Look, I’m not an Eagles fan anymore. I’ve retired from that franchise for personal reasons, and I will expand on that exodus in a future post. But if you think I don’t want them to do well after my fandom departure, you are mistaken. I wish them the best. I love you guys. It’s just wasn’t in the cards for me to remain with Gang Green. I have a destiny to catch. Giddy up.
So, how many freshmen in here clocked my Week 1 picks at 1-8. Ok, now, how many sophomores had it at 2-7? Most of you? That’s what I suspected. Let’s review just the MNF Primetime Combo.
With the people having already taken the Sunday nighter, we knew the House was taking one of these two sides, right? I should see everyone’s head nodding, yes? Can ya hear me in the back! Hello?! Good. That should have been a given.
3-6. Brutal. Probably shouldn’t have gloated about the Labor Day run. Serves me right. In the words of the mother of the 41st President of the United States…”Don’t gloat…
I think me and Cam could both take a lesson from this insightful woman to heart. Hear her, Cam? No elaborate celebrating after every time the chains move. No premeditated dances you’ve spent an entire offseason choreographing in front of your mirror. No lame post game sideline group shots pointing to the left, right, and whatever other nonsense you have planned this year. It’s not likable behavior, it’s tacky, and it reeks of a rookie having never been in the end zone before.
Anyone catch the Panthers/ Broncos game on Thursday night? Good. Did anyone bet it? No, right? Why not? Because we don’t trust Thursday night betting trends, as I went over in our list of important lessons taught in SPORTSBOOK 101, correct? Well, you should have taken the BRONCOS +3(-125) without even hesitating a second. ‘How’, you ask? Wouldn’t taking action in that game fly directly into the face of the third lesson listed in my last post? Well, sort of.
See, that wasn’t really Thursday Night Football. That was the NFL Kickoff Game, which was the first chance for gamblers to take action on a relevant NFL game in seven months. So, much like a junkie going though withdrawal, sports gamblers can’t wait to collect on their first winner of the year, especially after such a long layoff. Which means, the betting trends had more action, or at least the equivalent of action that is usually bet on any given Sunday night or Monday night game. I probably should have clarified that in the SPORTSBOOK 102 introductory post, but I didn’t.
Now you know the difference between Thursday Night Football and a Thursday Night Kickoff. And just for future reference, I’ll add this rule: If Al Michaels is announcing the game, then you can trust the betting trends.
Let me begin by saying that if this is your first sports betting course I highly recommend skimming a few posts (NFL Sundays with SBJ & NFL Rundown with SBJ) from last year. Get very familiar with the SBJ NFL SUNDAYS GLOSSARY terms, which can be found on the home page search icon. I have a slew of high profile future sharps who rode with me for the entire season in our SPORTSBOOK 101 class, and I owe it to them to not regurgitate the same novice lessons we went over in the introductory course.