Let me begin by saying that if this is your first sports betting course I highly recommend skimming a few posts (NFL Sundays with SBJ & NFL Rundown with SBJ) from last year. Get very familiar with the SBJ NFL SUNDAYS GLOSSARY terms, which can be found on the home page search icon. I have a slew of high profile future sharps who rode with me for the entire season in our SPORTSBOOK 101 class, and I owe it to them to not regurgitate the same novice lessons we went over in the introductory course.
My sophomores can name a trend result on sight now. They know how to make a Jump Ship Audible in reaction to drastic betting trend side swings. They know what “Primetime Combos” are with relation to both Side and Total Points results. They know the “Primetime Domino Effect”, along with the golden rule of “The Primetime Domino Effect”. They know how to spot the “Covert Favorite”. They know a lot.
With all that being said, I owe it to them to start this course right off the bat at a lightning fast pace, and all you incoming freshmen are just going to have to do your best to keep up. I’ll list the highlights below of the main tools you’ll need, but it always helps to digital deep dive the SPORTSBOOK 101 class to understand these concepts with actual examples there to reference for added knowledge.
So, here are the most important things you should have taken away from SPORTSBOOK 101:
1) The House always wins. Maybe not this week. Maybe not the next week, but at the end of the year…it does. If any of you sophomores in here had the Carolina SIDE with the OVER in that Super Bowl, just pack up and leave right now. You won’t learn a thing this year either, I’m afraid.
2) The Primetime Domino Effect. This refers to Sunday Night Football results influencing Monday Night Football results. The Effect is essentially the betting trends audible strategy for Monday Night Football action, especially with concern to Total Points. Last season, 80% of the time the SNF OVER hit, it was followed up with a MNF UNDER. That is the golden rule of “The Primetime Domino Effect”, and our #1 MNF Jump Ship Audible, when the SNF OVER has hit. Right? Right.
3) Don’t bet Thursday night. It’s just too much of a crap shoot with concern to relying on the trends to determine your bets, because there isn’t a ton of action on the games compared to Sunday nights and Monday nights. That’s why it’s common to see a Thursday night game break more favorably towards the public. Vegas really doesn’t care, to be perfectly honest.
4) When The House goes 1-5 the week before in SNF & MNF action, you can be sure they come out winners the following week. Already, this class has geared you to be contrarian in nature, but it is vidal that we remain so for the weeks following a losing Primetime record by Vegas. At least 4 of your 6 bets should be riding with The House to cash in on their rebound week.
5) More money on games means more value in the trend numbers, and vice versa. That’s why this course is strictly a SNF and MNF betting course. It’s great practice for playoff action trend analysis when monetary action on any game is at its peak. And, like stated in #3 above, it’s why TNF betting trends have low value in determining outcomes. You are practically flying blind in terms of trend analysis on Thursday nights.
6) The Team Records Theory. Once the season starts to grind to a halt, people start putting a lot of stock in the team records, when looking at the spread they want to take. This is when I like to suggest you use the “Team Records Theory”, which draws from the “George Costanza Opposite Theory”. The less sense a spread makes when you look at the records of both teams, the more inclined you should be to take it. This theory only comes into play in the last month of regular season action, because the public doesn’t give the overall team records much desicive weight until they have “a feel” for these teams three months in….and of course, they don’t…obviously.
7) You should always feel a little on edge when you take any action in general. The moments you start getting drawn towards action that seems safe and logical are usually the moments you should stay away.
8) The lower the spread…the more significant the Moneyline numbers become in deciding who really wins more cash between the public and The House on any given bet. The greater the spread…the less you focus on the Moneyline numbers, and you just concentrate on the Side numbers.
9) Betting with your heart is a recipe for sportsbook disaster. Well, as my students from last semester can attest to, I’m an extremely emotional guy, and not betting with my heart usually goes right out the window around Thanksgiving every year.
So what I’m saying is that as this course comes to a close, you will have to really take hold of the trend lessons I’ve taught you, and steer clear of my picks which are blatantly being bum rushed by my heart post-Thanksgiving action.
I’m not sure what it is exactly. Maybe the stuffing? Turkey? Who knows? All I do know is that the emotional investment starts reaching maximum altitude once winter hits me. You should especially consider taking a grain of rational salt with any of the following teams from Week 13 thru Week 17 of any given regular season: Patriots, Seahawks, Cowboys, Bills, and the Packers. You should also feel free to include all Primetime action which hold major fantasy football implications for me. I’ll give a full disclosure with every pick this year of fantasy players I’m starting and facing during SNF & MNF. I will also mention if the Primetime fantasy action still holds relevance for my fantasy week, or not. Bottomline, I will do my best to keep it together emotionally, but I can’t make any promises. I become a gambling loose cannon around that time every year, so just keep that in mind with my side bets around Week 12.
So, there you have it. The top nine things to take with you going forward this semester. I know listing ten would have made more traditional sense, but I feel nine is all you’ll need during this run. (Hint, hint.)
I’ll close this first class with a sample of the types of action we will be dealing with this season. Of course, the majority of our picks will strictly be game bets, but this course will be tailored specifically to learning how to capitalize on 2nd Half action. NO 1st Half action, though. I forbid it, and take zero financial responsibility for anyone trying to cash-in on 1st Half bets. I don’t even take 1st Half action, and I’m The Sportsbook Jesus for Christ’s sake.
Ok, that’s a lie. I do, as you will notice below, but it is extremely rare.
Now, let’s take a look at the kinds of sports betting skills we will hope to develop this year, and get a glimpse of the degenerate gambling status your professor performs at during any given 36 hour cycle. Hopefully, you all will be well on your way to this level by the end of the year.
Here was my Saturday to Sunday Labor Day Weekend Action. 33 hours and 20 minutes worth. This is just a taste of what we will be exploring this semester. By the end of this semester, I fully expect you all to have the sportsbook know how to make a 33 hour run like this during College Bowl Week, but more importantly, you’ll have a clear understanding as to the strategy and reasoning behind these moves.
TEXAS A&M -3(-115)
$50 to win $43.97
TEXAS A&M (2nd Half) -2.5(EVEN)
$50 to win $50
USC/BAMA OVER 51.5
$93.47 to win $84.97
USC/BAMA (2nd Half) OVER 23
$50 to win $45.45
4 Teamer Parlay
1) CARDINALS -170
2) CARDINALS/REDS UNDER 8.5(-105)
3) BLUE JAYS -116
4) BLUE JAYS/RAYS OVER 7.5(EVEN)
$23.89 to win $251.99
BREWERS/PIRATES UNDER 8.5(EVEN)
$60 to win $60
$50 to win $45.45
IRISH/LONGHORNS (1st Half) OVER 30(+105)
$75.88 to win $79.67
IRISH (2nd Half) -3(-120)
$55.55 to win $46.29
Yup. $100 to $687.79 in 33 hours and 20 minutes. 8 wins with 1 loss, which was an absolutely ridiculous loss to say the least. Five runs in the top of the ninth? Really, Brewers? A five to nothing lead with three Pirate outs to go wasn’t a safe enough run cushion for ya? With two outs in the top of the ninth, no less? I burst out laughing the second I saw the final. Oh, the swings of Vegas.
See ya, Sunday.