NFL RUNDOWN WITH SBJ: THE RETURN OF THE KING

Oooooh, baby. Brady is back, and if you think I’m taking a single spread against this man for the rest of the year, then go right ahead in believing such nonsense. So, there’s your heads up people. ERF ALERT LEVEL 10 for all future Patriots lines. You’ve been warned for the Week 10 Sunday Nighter.

2016 NFL REGULAR SEASON OVERALL

2016 NFL REGULAR SEASON SIDE

2016 NFL REGULAR SEASON MONEYLINE

2016 REGULAR SEASON TOTAL POINTS

PEOPLE

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SNF 8-4

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MNF 7-7-1

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OVERALL

15-11-1

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SIDE

5-4

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MONEYLINE

5-4

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TOTAL POINTS

5-3-1

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HOUSE

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SNF 4-8

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MNF 7-7-1

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OVERALL

11-15-1

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SIDE

4-5

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MONEYLINE

4-5

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TOTAL POINTS

3-5-1

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SPORTSBOOK JESUS

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SNF 8-4

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MNF 6-8-1

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OVERALL

14-12-1

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SIDE

5-4

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MONEYLINE

4-5

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TOTAL POINTS

5-3-1

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Are y’all still applying the 2nd Half terms to both of the Primetime matchups? You should be, because we are going to game plan for our first 2nd Half action in this weeks SNF & MNF contests. It will be a very general game plan being that we won’t know the result of the 1st Half lines, or even know the 2nd Half lines for that matter, but we’ll get into that with the picks column. For now, let’s take another look at a SNF 2nd Half result.

1st Half STEELERS -3? So, you want me to essentially double the spread for the game line in just half the time? Seems a bit irrational. There is positively nothing attractive about taking that 1st Half Pittsburgh side.

Who could justify taking a spread for a half, which is the same spread you could take with an entire sixty minutes to hit it? Hint…hint.

1st Half STEELERS -3(-115) & OVER 24(-115) with ease. By 9:15pm EST, you should have felt right as rain with that STEELERS -3(-125) for the game.
Not to mention, with such a decisive Half between these two teams, that sign should have perked your Costanza Opposite Theory ears up instantly. Like, probably around 9pmEST. Basically, about a full hour before you had to get the bet in. This couldn’t have lined up to be a better example of a 2nd Half FLIP, if it tried.

Pittsburgh is up 29-0 at the halfway point. We are two touchdowns(w/ extra points), and two field goals away from an OVER 48 for the game. Kansas City has to drop three touchdowns(w/ extra points) and two field goals(without Pittsburgh scoring a single point, mind you) in order to cover their CHIEFS +3(+105) action for the game.

So, what do we think everyone who had CHIEFS +3(+105) for the game is loading up on to hedge their inevitable loss with the game action?

So, the spread for the game is STEELERS -3(-125)….the 1st Half Line is exactly the same at STEELERS -3(-115)….then Pittsburgh mops the floor with them in the first half droppin’ a 29 point shutout…and the 2nd Half Line is a minicual STEELERS +0.5(-105). Up twenty nine to nothing, and I’m getting points? This means that Vegas is banking on you thinking the Chiefs will at the very least lose by no more than 28 points.

Hmm. STEELERS +0.5(-105). Seems super trappy. In addition to the -105 value, it’s actually a Double Dog. Is this a looming DEJA VU situation with a 2nd Half STEELERS +0.5 & OVER 22.5? Technically, yes, it goes in the books as a DEJA VU because the 1st Half STEELERS-3(-115) & OVER 22.5 hit, but it’s really a FLIP, in terms of favorites and dogs. It goes down as a STEELERS/OVER DEJA VU, but it flipped from a 1st Half Favorite Winner with the OVER 24, to a 2nd Half Dog Winner with the OVER 22.5. So, DEJA VU, but not in terms of value.

As for the value of the 1st & 2nd Half winning lines on the Pittsburgh side, that flipped, as well. The -115 hit in the 1st Half, and then the -105 hit in the 2nd Half. It’s rare to see a DEJA VU situation with concern to -115/-105 values, by the way. That unlikely scenario is the Value Double Negative. Just FYI.