Wow. That’s all I can say is wow. If you rolled with my NFL guru’s picks last week, you may actually be on vacation right now. The Sportsbook Jesus absolutely crushed it and hopefully built you a nice little bank moving forward.
This week, we started a new installment. Instead of… well, I will just let him explain it to you. Without further ado, I give you the SBJ NFL Rundown.
THE NFL RUNDOWN WITH THE SPORTSBOOK JESUS
So, to keep my Sunday Picks column to a more word count friendly number, the Editor-in-Chief has granted me another column to break up the hindsight analysis of the previous picks from my normal Sunday picks. I think it’s a great move on two fronts. For one, I now get two blog posts a week. More importantly, I don’t have The Wayniac screaming about how this isn’t Grantland where I can write a mini-novel. Win win.
WEEK 4 HINDSIGHT REPORT
RAVENS @ STEELERS-PushPFC(1-1-1)
JETS @ DOLPHINS – PFC (2-1)
JAGUARS @ COLTS – HDPFC (2-1)
TEXANS @ FALCONS – PFP (3-0)
PANTHERS @ BUCS – PFP (3-0)
GMEN @ BILLS – PDC (2-1)
RAIDERS @ BEARS – HDPS (1-2)
EAGLES @ REDSKINS – HDC (1-2)
CHIEFS @ BENGALS – PFP (3-0)
BROWNS @ BOLTS – HDFC (1-2)
PACKERS @ NINERS – PFC (2-1)
VIKINGS @ BRONCOS – HDS (0-3)
RAMS @ CARDS – HDC (1-2)
COWBOYS @ SAINTS – PFHC (1-2)
LIONS @ SEAHAWKS -HDPFS (1-2)
WEEK 4 OVERALL
COWBOYS +3(-120) @ SAINTS -3(EVEN)
The trend swing on the DAL/NO side bet was pretty severe since my post data. From 12am EST Sunday morning, the COWBOYS +3 plummeted from 81% to 44% by kickoff. So glad that happened. It gives me a perfect example to explain the following.
I had stated that I was riding with Vegas on both primetime side bets last week. If you were watching the trends and caught that dramatic changing of the public tide, then you might have thought that I was now planning to ride with Vegas at COWBOYS +3(EVEN). Not the case.
The reason I wouldn’t switch my SAINTS -3(-120) at the last minute is due to the Moneyline action. The COWBOYS Moneyline dropped from 77% to 52%. Although it was a 25% drop, the public still rode with Dallas which is the key.
See, even though the public won the side, they lost the moneyline. When you are betting a game where the spread is 3 or less, you have to consider that there might be as much (if not more) wagers in the moneyline action due to the favorite’s financial value.
The Lions/Seahawks game is a perfect contrast in terms of moneyline value. Basically, you had to bet $525 of your cash to win $100 if you wanted the Seattle Moneyline. That is a terrible return on your dollar and not even worth making unless you wanted it as part of a multiple team parlay.
Bottomline, the 60% of bets on SEAHAWKS -10(-105) was significantly more money than that 59% taking the SEAHAWKS -525. So, looking at the side and moneyline in this Monday night game, you focus all your energy on the side action to get an accurate pulse on the situation.
In the Sunday night game, all you had to put up was $150 on the favorite’s moneyline to win $100. That’s not much of a difference from $120 (as of Sunday at 12am EST) to win $100, if you wanted SAINTS -3(-120), right? Why not steer clear of a New Orleans field goal winning push for an additional 30 bucks? So worth it.
That’s why riding with the SAINTS -3(EVEN) at 56% technically goes in the books as a People’s Favorite House Cross(PFHC), but with The House winning the SAINTS -150 Moneyline, it’s most likely the financial gain of Vegas raking a type of House Special.
“Do you think that’s a People’s Cross you’re betting now?”
I know this is a lot to take in, and seemingly contradictory, but it makes perfect sense. If the public had ended up taking the SAINTS -150 in addition to their SAINTS -3(EVEN), then I definitely would have called a “Jump Ship Audible”, and taken COWBOYS +3(-120) without even hesitating a second. Since the public was still riding a Dallas victory by kickoff, I knew riding with the public on SAINTS -3(-120) was a safe play.
Once you understand this, you will be a sportsbook force to be reckoned with. We’ll review this concept again the next time a big side swing happens like that one. For now, just understand that the lower the spread…the more significant the moneyline numbers become in deciding who really wins more cash between the public and The House. The greater the spread…the less you focus on the Moneyline numbers, and you just concentrate on the side numbers.
LIONS +10(-115) @ SEAHAWKS -10(-105)
BOOM!(LIONS +10) BOOM!(SEAHAWKS -525) BOOM!(UNDER 43)
House Dog People’s Favorite Special(HDPFS). Nailed it, thanks to my man, Kam. Banana Tailpipe in full effect. I knew after that Packers PFP last week that Vegas wasn’t going to take this one lightly. They lost the LIONS MONEYLINE on that play, but as I stated before, it’s a small price to pay out with a spread driving down the moneyline value to such an extreme. The House took the Lion’s share…no pun intended. Well, maybe alittle pun intended. Ok, you got me. Totally intended.
I’ll have my week 5 picks posted this Sunday at 9 AM as usual. Get your game plans ready.