One big Sunday night game, and one… well, nearly unwatchable Monday nighter… again. Seriously: Ravens/Browns, Cowboys/Redskins, Giants/Dolphins and now Lions/Saints. Who picks these games? Anyway, SBJ has picked the winners on these games and that’s all that matters. Read his article, reimburse those Hanukkah funds, and bulk up on some extra Christmas cash.
WEEK 14
2015 SNF/MNF OVERALL RECORD
Public: 35-51-1 (5-1)
The House: 51-35-1 (1-5)
Sportsbook Jesus: 49-37-1 (3-3)
SIDE
Public: 2-0 (10-18-1)
Vegas: 0-2 (18-10-1)
Sportsbook Jesus: 1-1 (18-10-1)
MONEYLINE
Public: 2-0 (13-16)
Vegas: 0-2 (16-13)
Sportsbook Jesus: 1-1 (17-12)
TOTAL POINTS
Public: 1-1 (12-17)
Vegas: 1-1 (17-12)
Sportsbook Jesus: 1-1 (14-15)
I know a lot of you are trying to balance your gambling study time with holiday preparation, so like I stated in yesterday’s column, we are keeping this week’s lesson super easy. House, House, and more House. That’s how we are rollin’ this Sunday and Monday night.
From our first Week 2 homework assignment to Week 14, here is the breakdown of the betting trend classifications. Not counting the games with a push on side or total points, there have been a total of 25 primetime outcomes.
In those 25 games, The House walked away with either the side or the total points bet…or both…ready? 84% of the time. That’s right. 84%. Don’t forget Vegas is coming off a 1-5 week as an added bonus, in addition to those numbers. I’ll have a full betting trends classification breakdown between the 1pm, 4pm, and primetime action in next week’s Christmas Edition Rundown. For right now, just stick with Vegas on these bets.
CARDINALS -3.5(-105) @ EAGLES +3.5(-115)
OVER/UNDER: 51
Emotional Red Flag Alert! We are at a 10, people! Haven’t been this fired up for a Sunday nighter since Green Bay at Denver. If I can just get a little help from both Carolina and Buffalo, then it could very well be possible that Philadelphia is in sole possession of first place, by the end of the day. I can’t believe that fact is still even possible, but whatever. It’s here, so let’s do it.
As previously stated, we are going with The House, so lucky me. Emotions won’t end up getting in the way of our strategy this week. 76% on the Arizona side, and 73% on their moneyline, as well. Sweet.
Plus, we have an 11-2 team giving less than four points to a sporadic 6-7 team? Arizona giving a measly -3.5 smells a little trappy, if you ask me.
My birds will also be in full Blackout Mode, which I love. They also have a lot more riding on this game than a Cardinal team seemingly coasting to an NFC playoff bye.
Oh, AND the public has the UNDER 51 currently at 79%. I know we have yet to see the people end up on a single Prime Time under all year, but I think this Sunday night could be it! RUN UP THAT SCOREBOARD GUYS! I WANT AT LEAST 70 POINTS COMBINED, BABY! WHOOO!
What? I’m happy. I usually never feel great about a prime time game going up to, or even over 50 points. Isn’t that a good thing?
How often do I get to ride with The House on a prime time over? It hasn’t happened yet this year. How could I not be excited about that? Not to mention Philadelphia is a modest -115 covert favorite, and I get to take more than 3 points!
I know, I know. I usually do think taking a +3.5 dog is taking too many points, because that extra half point, much like a +7.5 or +10.5 on a dog, seems like a trappy number. Although, I think the Team Records Theory supersedes a trappy looking number, when the spread is this low between an 11-2 team versus a 6-7 team. So that settles that.
EAGLES +160 & OVER 51
CLASSIFICATION: HDS. Probably ending with the public on the over making it a HDC or HDPC.
JUMP SHIP AUDIBLE: Even if this ends as a HDC, I’m still going to stick with the over. I know, I said we are going with every Vegas bet on the board yesterday, but I like this over too much. We only audible to the UNDER 51, if this becomes a HDPC. HDC…stay with over. HDPC…flip to under.
And of course if this Eagles side becomes a public bet, we obviously have to abandon the EAGLES +3.5(-115) for CARDINALS -3.5(-105). News Flash: That ain’t gonna happen, so don’t worry. We’re locked into this EAGLES +3.5(-115) for better or worse.
LIONS +3(-115) @ SAINTS -3(-105)
OVER/UNDER: 51
With this one we don’t mess around. All House…all the time. Whichever bets Vegas lands on, we ride right along with them.
SAINTS -150 & UNDER 51
CLASSIFICATION: HDFS.
JUMP SHIP AUDIBLE: We ride with The House on all bets Monday night. So, check the trends at the fifteen minute warning, and make your moves accordingly.
Goodnight, and good luck.
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