Another 5-1 week, folks. My Sportsbook Jesus is 10-2 the past two weeks. The only person you are hurting by not listening to my NFL odds man is yourself. And your lonely wallet. Your lonely, lonely wallet. Without further ado, I give you the best FREE picks on the intraweb courtesy of SBJ.
THE NFL RUNDOWN WITH THE SPORTSBOOK JESUS
WEEK 5 HINDSIGHT REPORT
COLTS @ TEXANS – HDPC (2-1)
JAGUARS @ BUCS – PFHP (2-1)
BILLS @ TITANS – PP*C (2-1)
BROWNS @ RAVENS – PDC (2-1)
REDSKINS @ RAVENS – HDPFS (1-2)
BEARS @ CHIEFS – H**DPS (1-2)
SAINTS @ EAGLES – HFC (1-2)
RAMS @ PACKERS – PFC (2-1)
SEAHAWKS @ BENGALS – PushHFS (0-2-1)
*Pick ‘Em……loooooove ’em. They should just call ’em “Love ‘Ems”, frankly.
**The side was 50/50 between the public and The House. Tie always goes to The House on the -110 vig principle.
CARDS @ LIONS – PFHP (2-1)
PATRIOTS @ COWBOYS – PFC (2-1)
BRONCOS @ RAIDERS – PFC (2-1)
NINERS @ GMEN – HDFC (1-2)
STEELERS @ BOLTS – HDPS (1-2)
WEEK 5 OVERALL
So, you’re probably thinking to yourselves, “Hey, SBJ. If the data shows that the public has won the majority of the betting action 3 out of the 4 weeks since we started this weekly homework assignment, then how can you claim The House always wins?” Ah, great question. It’s simple, really.
See, it’s the primetime betting that gets most of the action. These are the games every person who has basic cable can watch across the country. For every bet made on a 1pm game you can guarantee that probably ten times that amount is gambled on SNF and MNF.
So, Vegas is totally fine trailing the people during the day early on. The public wants to take home a few PFPs and PDPs giving them the overall lead into primetime. They want to rake from The House a Jaguars vs. Browns game, which probably only has a handful of action outside the Jacksonville and Cleveland markets. By all means, have at it. Heck, they’ll even let them “win the week” overall. But what’s the people’s record through the first five weeks during SNF and MNF, huh? Exactly. 39%.
NINERS +7.5 @ GMEN -7.5
Well, well, well. Helmet Catch 2.0 to save your lucky New York behinds once again, huh? Unbelievable. This team gets more breaks than a bull in a china shop, I swear. At least the NINERS +7.5 was in no danger of being spoiled on that final drive. I’ll hang my hat on that. I almost had the Moneyline Call of the Year, though. I’ll find it. Don’t you worry about that. I always do.
I asked you to link the SNF and MNF results as an additional assignment, so let’s break that down, shall we? Ok.
House Dog Favorite Cross (HDFC). The overwhelming majority of the time that any House Cross hits means that the over came in, because as we know…people love taking overs. We also know that Vegas loves to rake primetime overs, which you should have recognized as an immediate red flag to then jump on that MNF under without any hesitation. We’ve seen the SNF/MNF total points go as follows:
- WEEK 1 – OVER/UNDER/UNDER
- WEEK 2 – UNDER/UNDER
- WEEK 3 – UNDER/OVER
- WEEK 4 – UNDER/UNDER
- WEEK 5 – OVER/UNDER
Notice anything? What combo is missing? Yup. No OVER/OVER. Remember though, these are all results where The House has every under. I’m not saying there won’t be a single OVER/OVER primetime combo all season, only because The House might have one of those forthcoming overs. Get it? Bottom line, I’m willing to bet we won’t see a PUBLIC/PUBLIC total points combo, if The House has both the unders.
As for the side action, it went DOG/DOG with The House owning both of them. Now, we can’t look at this as cut and dry, like the total points, because the public can ride with the dogs just as often as they do with the favorites. So, it’s much foggier to read compared to total points, unless you list the side results as public or House…which we will.
- WEEK 1 – HOUSE/HOUSE/HOUSE
- WEEK 2 – PUBLIC/HOUSE
- WEEK 3 – PUBLIC/PUBLIC
- WEEK 4 – PUBLIC/HOUSE
- WEEK 5 – HOUSE/HOUSE
Primetime side combos aren’t as predictable as total point combos, where the public rides both overs. That being said, I usually like taking a House side in MNF, if the public won the side in SNF. I just don’t see many PUBLIC/PUBLIC combos happening like what happened in Week 3, especially when it’s a FAVORITE/FAVORITE result, as well. Don’t get used to seeing that. That was outlandish.
STEELERS +4(-105) @ BOLTS -4(-115)
House Dog People’s Special(HDPS). Like I said in my last post and just elaborated on above, if that over came in on Sunday night, then that MNF UNDER 46 was gonna be smooth sailing. With a mere 10 points at the half, I knew we had a lock on our hands in the total points department. Yes, if the Steelers went for the late field goal instead of the winning touchdown, then two scores in the overtime would have ruined it…but only if the overtime had more than one score. I didn’t break one sweat. Not one drop. Not even a hot flash. I’ve seen that script play out too many times to count. Now, the Steelers winning on the other hand? That was alittle more nerve racking to be perfectly honest. But, I’ll gladly take it.
See ya Sunday.