Be ready this week. The Sportsbook Jesus (pronounced Hey Zeus because it’s funnier that way) has taken all the lessons from week one and two and has shown you what he has been trying to prove the whole time: you listen to him, you will win! Isn’t that what you want? So sit back and listen to his picks of the week! I give you:
The Sportbook Jesus Week 3 Picks
Without question, the funniest telecast moment of the week for me was Joe Buck and Troy Aikman during the lack luster “Game of the Week” between Dallas and Philly. Aikman seemed absolutely dumbstruck. The man could barely put into words the level of disappointment he had for the division showdown, and nothing upset him more than the Eagles disastrous offense.
At one point, Troy claimed it was the worst he’s ever seen in the history of the game. You would have thought he played his entire career in Philly, and not Dallas, with the amount of disgust he had for the birds. He seemed genuinely offended by it. I personally found it hilarious how increasingly annoyed he became as the second half began to mercifully come to a close.
By far, the climax of the comedy was when Aikman ran a laundry list of things that were troubling him, and then he ended the analysis with, “This has been a terrible game to watch”. Right at that precise moment Buck chimed in with a comedically fitting, “As we are joined by a new audience(from another telecast)”. It couldn’t have been written better. The timing of the delivery coupled with the fact that you couldn’t have asked for a worse intro to a broadcast by Aikman was absolutely priceless. I was in hysterics. Easily the early No. 1 seed for the “Unintentional Comedy Award for Broadcasting” this NFL season. I love those two.
WEEK 2 HOMEWORK ANSWERS
PATRIOTS @ BILLS – PDP (3-0)
FALCONS @ GMEN – HDPS (1-2)
BUCS @ SAINTS. – HDS (0-3)
TITANS @ BROWNS. – HFC (1-2)
LIONS @ VIKINGS – HFS (0-3)
CARDS @ BEARS. – PFP (3-0)
NINERS @ STEELERS. – PFHP (2-1)
TEXANS @ PANTHERS – HF(PUSH)(0-2-1)
BOLTS @ BENGALS. – PFC (2-1)
RAMS @ REDSKINS. – HDC (1-2)
1pm Totals Public (13-16-1)
DOLPHINS @ JAGS. – HDS (0-3)
RAVENS @ RAIDERS. – HDS (0-3)
COWBOYS @ EAGLES – HDPS (1-2)
4pm Totals Public (1-8)
1pm/4pm Totals Public (14-24-1)
HAWKS @ PACKERS – PFC (2-1)
JETS @ COLTS – HDS (0-3)
WEEK 2 OVERALL TOTALS
How did we do with the homework assignment? Can you read all 20 trend combos on sight? Not even close, huh? Don’t worry. You will soon enough. By the way, I’m also adding 4 more combos to the list of terms to bring the total to 24. They have been added to the Sportsbook 101 archive for future reference. They are PDFC, PDFP, HDFC, & HDFS. Calm down. I promise not to add anymore to the list. 24 is our cap. Breathe easy. You’ll have this down in no time.
Next to the acronym of every game listed above, I put the record of the public for that result. So, in the New England @ Buffalo game I noted that the public went 3-0. The house record of every scenario is obviously the exact inverse of the public’s record. If the public went 2-1 in the San Diego @ Cincy PFC, then the house went 1-2. Got it? Good.
I see that one PFP AND one PDP hit during the 1pm games. Of course, this comes right on the heels of me mentioning last class that you probably wouldn’t have to ever worry about recognizing those scenarios. That’s just Vegas being a prick to make me look bad. They know damn well they ain’t letting that crop up every week. That goes double for any game after 1pm, and triple for primetime. In fact, I will flat out guarantee there won’t be one PFP, PDP, or the newly added PDFP during any SNF or MNF action for the entire year. Go ahead, Vegas. Take a huge national loss just to spite today’s lesson. Do it. Yeah, that’s what I thought.
Notice that the public’s record during the day dramatically dropped from 13-16-1 at 1pm to 1-8 at 4pm. As you can see, the house gained most of their winning momentum during the 4pm games. That 4pm nose dive left the public at 14-24-1 going into the Sunday nighter. That’s as terrible a 4pm performance as the Eagles offense, and I’m sure Aikman would wholeheartedly agree.
Including the Thursday nighter, the house went 25-16-1 going into primetime, and ended the week at 29-18-1. So, what have we already learned after only two weeks of action? Chances are you’ve heard this saying before: The house always wins. Period. Maybe not in the Pats/Bills PDP, or the Cards/Bears PFP…but at the end of the day, they will be on top overall. Our job is to spot where and when the house is looking to collect their winnings, and then ride that pick with them to victory. Who’s ready? Vivaaaaa…Vivaaaa…Las Vegaaaaaaaaaaaaaaas!
So far, in five combined Sunday and Monday Nighters, the over has hit only once, and the public has been riding it every time. The only thing worse than me calling a total points bet correctly so far is the public at 1-4. The one over that the public actually hit barely came in thanks to a miracle last second Cowboys win, which was only possible thanks to Eli. Eli definitely had a few grand on the over in that one. No doubt in my mind.
Essentially, the under should be undefeated through two weeks, minus the Broncos/Chiefs Thursday nighter. This in no way should shock you considering that the bulk of the time it’s the house that collects on the under. Should we ride this end of the week under trend, or will this Denver at Detroit game end up being the first over to hit with relative ease? One of these public overs has to hit, right?
Generally, taking overs will always do more harm than good when the house has the under. In the words of one of my favorite sports bettors, Joe House, “That’s a fact”. That being said, I can’t help myself! I’m a stubborn mule bred to buck trends! I’m not taking both unders this week! No way! I know the public is due to hit one! Who’s comin’ with me?!
I don’t care. I’m riding with the public on one of these two overs. The people will atleast have a total points record of 2-5 by Tuesday morning. I’m sure of it. The only question is whether it’s Sunday night or Monday night. Let’s find the answer, shall we?
Oh, one last thing before I forget. I noticed that our unofficial sponsor for the trend percentages has been alittle off a few times with some stuff. As much as I absolutely adore iOdds app with regards to their beautiful layout for easy screenshots of the game lines and box scores by quarters, the trend percentages don’t seem as up to the minute as some other sources.
I also had noticed that the 2nd Half odds they conclude with are slightly off the mark, too. It first raised an eyebrow during GMen/Cowboys when they listed 2nd Half odds as COWBOYS -7(which hit), when most books had COWBOYS -8.5(which lost by a half point). That’s a HUGE difference when recapping who won the bets between the people and Vegas. Raised a red flag to me, because the accuracy of these percentages and odds are EVERYTHING. If we don’t have reliable numbers, then we have nothing. Without accuracy, we are flying blind and this philosophical gambling strategy is pointless.
So, with that I am going back to my betting trends first love. The site that took my online sportsbook betting virginity 11 years ago. Sportsbook.com. I also highly recommend Scoresandodds.com as a solid cross reference, as well. They have a great archives calendar that goes back years. They are my side chick.
But since having joined Wayniac Nation, I decided to up the ante, and get a subscription to Sportsinsights.com. Premium package, baby. This could be the one for me. It’s quite a pretty penny, but for the next 4 months of NFL action, nothing’s too good for my loyal readers. You deserve top notch analytics with no room for error, and you’re gonna get it. They reference up to the second trends and have Sportsbook.com as a main source along with a half dozen other books. So, that’s the gameplan, folks. Now, where were we? Ah, yes.
BRONCOS -3(-125) @ LIONS +3(+105)
We have a 2-0 road favorite at an 0-2 home dog. Everything you know to make reasonable and logical sense predicting this outcome would definitely suggest that Denver handles Detroit with relative ease. I mean, all the Broncos have to do is win by a field goal and you push at the absolute worst? That seems safe. How do you not jump on that without even thinking twice about it? Well, that is precisely what has me concerned. I never trust a bet that seems too good to be true, because in most cases something’s amidst. That’s the vibe I’m getting with this one.
Look, let’s not get all definitive here after two games about what all these teams identities are in September. You can’t jump the gun this early, and think you have an accurate read on anyone before you’ve even set your clocks back. The baseball regular season hasn’t even ended yet, for God’s sake. Reel it in, people. We got a long way to go.
According to scoresandodds.com, the public is riding the heavy -125 double favorite at 66%, but currently have a hefty 71%(Sportsbook.com has 61%) on the Lions to win straight up. I expect that Lions Moneyline to drop closer to the 50% range by kickoff, and wouldn’t be surprised at all to see it flip to Denver. 75% is once again praying that this is the over they have been desperately waiting on to finally come through.
66% gambling on an 0-3 Lions team? Y’all just gonna boo B. Rabbit off the stage after two games, huh? Ok, but don’t be surprised when he leaves Papa John Manning speechless Sunday night at The Shelter. This has all the makings of a downtrodden underdog sending a message, and I’m sold. Now, about that over? Screw it. I’ll bite. Let’s go, public! You’re due! Lions, it’s on you. You know what to do. Detroit, spin that s—!
“You don’t know bout me, J. Rock? When I come through, all the haters get hot…
We don’t play. We rake it to The House.
Primetime play? Rake it to The House.
This the way we rake it to The House.
Rake it(LIONS +3) to The House.
Take it(OVER 44.5) to da house(endzone).”
LIONS +160 & OVER 44.5
CHIEFS +6.5 @ PACKERS -6.5
Boy, Kansas City was completely shellshocked last Thursday, huh? That was just a few notches below a Herman Edwards Level surprise score. Straight up gut shot. The question is are the Chiefs still licking their wounds a week and a half later, or has the extra time given them a chance to heal before this extremely tough task at hand?
I can’t imagine a worse way to try and get over that heartbreaker than a trip up to Lambeau. It’s like getting knocked out cold in a bar fight that you should have won, and then, when you finally regain consciousness, Mike Tyson is standing over you wanting a piece, because you accidentally spilled a drink on him during the ruckus. Don’t imagine that ending well.
The public is barely taking Green Bay to cover at 52%, and that has high potential to flip to the KC side by kickoff. Green Bay Moneyline also sits at a mere 52% which could easily move to KC, as well. As for the total points, the public is riding the OVER 49 at an astonishing 92%. Wow. News Flash: Vegas is licking their chops for that percentage to fall flat. Stay away.
As far as the -6.5 is concerned, I think it’s a winner. Even if Lacy can’t go, the running attack seems serviceable the way Starks was moving against a great defense last Sunday night. Although, if Adams can’t go either, then that might make things slightly tougher for the offense.
It shouldn’t slow Rodgers down too much, though. Dropping to PACKERS -6.5 from -7 does smell alittle trappy, but let’s face it. There’s no one that can match Rodgers. His style is impetuous, his defense is impregnable, and he’s just ferocious. He wants your heart. He might even want to eat the Chiefs children in this one. Praise be to Green Bay.
PACKERS -6.5 and UNDER 49
WEEK 2 HINDSIGHT REPORT
2015 OVERALL RECORD
Sportsbook Jesus: 9-6
Public: 1-1 (1-4)
Vegas: 1-1 (4-1)
Sportsbook Jesus: 2-0 (4-1)
Public: 1-1 (2-3)
Vegas: 1-1 (3-2)
Sportsbook Jesus: 1-1 (3-2)
Public: 0-2 (1-4)
Vegas: 2-0 (4-1)
Sportsbook Jesus: 1-1 (2-3)
Ok. Here is where we start to apply the terms. Last week, I had you painting fences, scrubbing decks, and waxing cars like Daniel Larusso. You were most likely racking your brains trying to understand these trend terms, and all the while thinking, “What the hell is the point?”. Now, I’ll try to karate chop you, and we’ll see if you get it.
SEAHAWKS +3(+110) @ PACKERS -3(-130)
Here I’m listing the final lines I found on scoresandodds.com. I just have a long history with them as my go-to site. They always have a great pulse on line movement. I’ve only been familiar with the iOdds app for 3 months, so I’m still feeling them out. As of right now, iOdds is that gorgeous model filling all your superficial needs, but you’re still wondering what she’s bringing to the table in the brains department. So far, the layout…
(Everything aside from the trends part looks great. Looking at the scoresandodds.com trends, it’s much easier to read this stuff horizontally instead of iOdds’ vertical version with moneyline at the bottom. Most sites are left to right…Side/Moneyline/TotalPoints, and that’s the only way it should ever be.)
… is a dream come true, but the jury is still out on what’s goin’ on upstairs concerning some of their numbers.
This Sunday nighter went according to plan. People’s Favorite Cross(PFC) just as I expected. The public won the favorite side and moneyline, with the house taking the total points. This is a classic cross scenario. I use the term “cross” to describe the fact that the money changes hands between the public and house on the side and total points bet. Most of the time the public will win one bet between the side and total points, and the house will hit the other bet. I liked the public to hit the side, so I automatically was going to take whatever the house had in total points whether they had the over or the under. If the house was riding PACKERS -3, then I would take whatever the public had in total points without even caring what the number was by kickoff. Crosses are really that simple. Hey, they don’t call me “Sportsbook Jesus” for nothin’.
With only 16 points scored in the first half, 5 TDs with extra points(or 4 TDs with extra points and 2 FGs) would have been needed for the over to hit. If you believed in my cross prediction that night, 16 at half should have been an indication that the house was snatching up that total points money. Once you picked up on that, you would have realized that the Packers were not only going to win, but cover the -3, as well. Is this making sense, or did I just chop you in the face? Don’t worry. You’ll see the walls of green code, like Neo, soon enough.
JETS +6(-115) & COLTS -6(-105)
iOdds didn’t even finish filling out their box score after the game was finished. See, this is the kind of stuff I’m talking about. Completely asleep at the wheel on that one. Come on, iOdds! You’re better than this!
Well, another House Dog Special. We’ve seen 3 already in 3 Monday night games. So, what does that say? It’s atleast gonna cross on a Monday night, if at all. Like I said earlier, don’t bank on a PFP, PDP, or PDFP all year. Mondays are genuinely considered bad, and I bet that was coined by a public riding parlayer.
My advice for this week is to find a house bet that you like between the side and total points and ride that. I’m not saying they all hit, but half of them definitely will. It’s the best “50/50” odds you are ever gonna see at a casino, because the truth is that the odds will be slightly more in your favor with Da House. You can take that to the bank. I’ll see ya next week.