Last week, our newest edition took a deep look into several picks and if you listened to him, chances are you are already up on the season. This week, he looks to add to your bankroll, while giving you some valuable lessons. Just don’t take any fantasy advice from him! Without further ado, welcome back Jared the Sportsbook Jesus (pronounced Hey Zeus because I just like it that way).
Anybody else hate fantasy football already, or is it just me? Probably just me after the torturous display I witnessed to my team this weekend. Look, I don’t want to bore you with some tragic fantasy war story we’ve all had to listen to countless times, but I will. Thank you for the compassionate shoulder to cry on. I love you readers already.
51 total points. Yup. 51, I said. Now get a load of this. If I played my bench instead of my starters, I’d have 142. Pretty close to triple what my starters were able to muster, and I’d be the highest scoring team in the league right out of the gate. Just soak that in for a hot second.
Arguably the biggest slap in the face I’ve received from the fantasy gods in my entire 18 seasons of doing this. Roughly 250 submitted rosters in my franchise’s storied history, and I NEVER had a starters to bench deficit of -91. Not even close. EVERY POSITION PLAYER was outscored by their replacement. I started Matt Ryan(22), Latavius Murray(10), Frank Gore(4), Dez Bryant(6), Odell Beckham Jr.(6), Greg Olson(1), Adam Vinatieri(0), & the Texan D(2). Riding the pine were Carson Palmer(37), Chris Ivory(21), Ameer Abdullah(17), Stevie Johnson(17), Roddy White(10), Heath Miller(12), Brandon McManus(18), & the Bengals D(10). If that wasn’t tragic enough, I get to enjoy a little knife twisting in my heart as my first round stud receiver is now sidelined for over half of the fantasy regular season at the very least due to a Jones fracture.
Talk about taking the wind out of your sails right from the jump, huh? Maybe I’ll need to adopt the George Costanza opposite philosophy starting this week, if this nonsense continues throughout the year. Ok, that’s it. Just needed to get that freakshow turn of events off my chest. Just having explained all that to you is really settin’ me off again.
SEAHAWKS +3(EVEN) @ PACKERS -3(-120)
I think we all knew full well the day the NFL released this season’s schedule that every single Packer fan would be chomping at the bit to seek some long overdue redemption in this one. Not just to save face for the NFC Championship implosion, but for the opening night beatdown Seattle handed them at Lambeau during that same season. Vegas isn’t showing them much home field respect with PACKERS -3, especially after the Hawks just lost at St. Louis to a mediocre Rams team. Doesn’t Vegas realize the Packer faithful have had this circled for months on their cheesehead calendars, and want this game more than anything? Isn’t it an obvious redemption statement to lay early claim to the conference, and show who’s the new top dog of the NFC? Do they think Seattle has the Pack’s number of late? Maybe Vegas feels that loss to the Rams has the Hawks already in a state of desperation faced with the probability of an 0-2 start? So many questions. So little time.
The public thinks the Pack will finally get their revenge riding the -3 at 60%. Although, the public also have the Hawks Moneyline at 55%, so they seem as torn on this as I am. The Pack are also currently a double favorite with the -3 at a -120 payout. I hate double favorites more than Indiana Jones hates snakes. “Double favorite. Why’d it have to be double favorite.”
If the Hawks had not lost week one, I would have taken the Packers without even hesitating a second, even though they are a double favorite. I just would have figured that the third time was the charm, and there’d be no better setting than on the pre-frozen tundra to make a national spotlight statement game. Although, now I’m concerned that Seattle is like a cornered animal after only one game in the books. It seems crazy to think, but they might be even more dangerous going to Green Bay 0-1 than going in 1-0. It’s not like the vengeful Pack won’t be amped up to send the Hawks home 0-2, but that Rams loss might have Seattle in early FU Mode. Plus, you gotta show the two time NFC champs some respect here. This team fears no one. The only problem is that Green Bay’s been in FU Mode going on 8 months with only one team on their mind. Them. I’ll be shocked to see the Hawks start 0-2, but payback’s a bitch. Double favorite or no double favorite…I can’t deny the fact that the Pack is due in a big way.
GREEN BAY -3(-120) & UNDER 49
JETS +7(-115) @ COLTS -7(-105)
I’ve already decided after week one that this game will be an old school WWF(I refuse to say WWE) Career Match between Frank Gore and Chris Ivory for a permanent fantasy starting spot on my roster. It’s also likely we see Ameer Abdullah running to the sidelines of Lucas Oil Stadium after the game holding the “Money In The Bank” briefcase, if he scores another TD at Minnesota this week. Other than that, I’m not too interested in how this plays out.
The Colts anointed by many as the AFC front runner this year looked anything but at Buffalo last week. Still trying to figure out if that means we should think more of the Bills or less of the Colts? Think more of the Bills, AND more of the Colts. Having picked the Bills as a wildcard this year, I have mad respect for them. So, I won’t judge the Colts off one game against possibly the league’s best defense…at Buffalo no less.
The public doesn’t seem to be rattled by the loss either being that they are riding COLTS -7(-105) at 74%. I see that 74% slowly drop over the next 44 hours, but I agree with the public, and say the Colts will rally the troops at home. They’ll put up an offensive performance that brings a collective sigh of relief in Indianapolis.
The Jets were impressive in week one. You really gotta hand it to them, even if it was only Cleveland. Brandon Marshall is still Brandon Marshall. Revis is still Revis. I obviously love Ivory. Plus, Fitzpatrick is just crafty enough to not force bad throws and be a decent game manager for them. I hope the Jets can keep it close for Ivory’s sake, otherwise they’ll be forced to abandon the run by the fourth quarter. I’m not holding my breath, but I’ll ride JETS +7(-115) with Vegas at 26%. Colts win. Over hits.
JETS +7(-115) & OVER 46.5
WEEK 1 HINDSIGHT REPORT
2015 OVERALL RECORD
Sportsbook Jesus: 5-4
Sportsbook Jesus: 2-1
Sportsbook Jesus: 2-1
Sportsbook Jesus: 1-2
Well, well, well. Not a single favorite has covered the spread in primetime action yet(which includes the PATRIOTS -7 push last Thursday), huh? Interesting. Vegas went 1-2 in the Sunday night game, and then turned around and went a perfect 6-0 in both Monday Nighters. Boom! Double House Dog Special, baby! Greedy bastards. The public got raked at the table going 2-7, and I barely escaped starting the season below .500 with a modest 5-4. Ouch.
A House Dog Special, or HDS, is a term I use to describe when Vegas wins all the bets riding the dog. They collect on the dog side, the dog moneyline, and the total points bet. There is also the House Favorite Special, or HFS, where the exact same scenario happens, but with Vegas winning all the action on the favorite instead of the dog. All in all, there are 20 different combinations that can play out between the side, moneyline, and total points bet. Actually, if we wanted to get super specific with total points we could list even more, but let’s just leave it at 20 for now.
We’re not going to focus on the week one outcomes because we need to have you crawling before you can walk. This week will just be getting you familiar with the terms. Once you have those down, you will be well on your way to your Bachelor of Degenerate Gambling with a concentration in Sportsbooks. Fear not, each week we will link this key list of terms below as an easily accessible reference. Yea, I’m a cool teacher that gives you cheat sheets. I know. Let’s get cracking students.
BETTING TRENDS KEY:
PEOPLE’S FAVORITE CROSS (PFC)
Public wins both favorite side and favorite moneyline with house winning total points.
PEOPLE’S FAVORITE HOUSE CROSS (PFHC)
Public wins favorite side, but house wins favorite moneyline with house winning total points.
PEOPLE’S DOG CROSS (PDC)
Public wins both dog side and dog moneyline with house winning total points.
PEOPLE’S DOG HOUSE CROSS (PDHC)
Public wins dog side, but house wins both dog moneyline and total points.
PEOPLE’S DOG HOUSE FAVORITE CROSS (PDHFC)
Public wins dog side, but house wins both favorite moneyline and total points.
HOUSE FAVORITE CROSS (HFC)
House wins both favorite side and favorite moneyline with public winning total points.
HOUSE FAVORITE PEOPLE’S CROSS (HFPC)
House wins favorite side, but public wins favorite moneyline and total points.
HOUSE DOG CROSS (HDC)
House wins both dog side and dog moneyline with public winning total points.
HOUSE DOG PEOPLE’S CROSS (HDPC)
House wins dog side, but public wins dog moneyline and total points.
HOUSE DOG PEOPLE’S FAVORITE CROSS (HDPFC)
House wins dog side, but public wins both favorite moneyline and total points.
HOUSE FAVORITE SPECIAL (HFS)
House wins both favorite side and favorite moneyline plus total points.
HOUSE FAVORITE PEOPLE’S SPECIAL (HFPS)
House wins favorite side, but public wins favorite moneyline with the house winning total points.
HOUSE DOG SPECIAL (HDS)
House wins both dog side and dog moneyline plus total points.
HOUSE DOG PEOPLE’S SPECIAL (HDPS)
House wins dog side, but public wins dog moneyline with house winning total points.
HOUSE DOG PEOPLE’S FAVORITE SPECIAL (HDPFS)
House wins dog side but public wins favorite moneyline with house winning total points
PEOPLE’S FAVORITE PICK (PFP)
Public wins both favorite side and favorite moneyline plus winning total points.
PEOPLE’S FAVORITE HOUSE PICK (PFHP)
Public wins favorite side, but house wins favorite moneyline with public winning total points.
PEOPLE’S DOG PICK (PDP)
Public wins both dog side and dog moneyline plus winning total points.
PEOPLE’S DOG HOUSE PICK (PDHP)
Public wins dog side, but the house wins dog moneyline with the public winning total points.
PEOPLE’S DOG HOUSE FAVORITE PICK (PDHFP)
Public wins dog side, but house wins favorite moneyline with public winning total points.
There you have it. Once you can learn this playbook, you will be able to read all 20 possible results at a glance. That includes any trends of any game in any sport. As this column starts getting alittle more advanced, becoming fluent with these terms, their acronyms, and their significance will only help you in gaining a tremendous edge over your typical novice sports better…a.k.a…the public.
So in closing, I leave you with your first homework assignment. It’s real simple. Get familiar with these scenarios, and try tagging each 1pm & 4pm game on Sunday with it’s proper classification. Notice if you see certain ones occurring more than others. Take note of any that you didn’t see at all. Here’s a hint. You most likely won’t ever have to worry about knowing a PFP or PDP with regards to these terms. We’ll get into why that is with our review next week. Good luck, Dub Nation. And in the spirit of the great Captain Frank Ramsey….
“I expect and demand your very best! Anything less…you should have joined an elimination pool!”- Sportsbook Jesus
(Wayniac Nation erupts in laughter)
“This might be our Editor in Chief’s blog site, but this is my post! And all I ask is that you keep up with me! And if you can’t, that strange sensation that you’ll be feeling in the seat of your pants will be Dez’s boot in your ass!”- Sportsbook Jesus
(Wayniac Nation erupts again)
“Mr. Cav!”- Sportsbook Jesus
“Yes, sir!”- Chief of the Blog
“You’re aware of my name at the sportsbooks aren’t you, Mr. Cav?!”- Sportsbook Jesus
“Very aware, sir!”- Chief of the Blog
“It bares a proud name doesn’t it, Mr. Cav?!”- Sportsbook Jesus
“Very proud, sir!”- Chief of the Blog
“It represents divine people!”- Sportsbook Jesus
“Very divine people, sir!”- Chief of the Blog
“Who bet in a fine outstanding state!”- Sportsbook Jesus
“Outstanding, sir!”- Chief of the Blog
“In the greatest country in the entire world!”- Sportsbook Jesus
“In the entire world, sir!”- Chief of the Blog
“And what is that name, Mr. Cav?”- Sportsbook Jesus
“Sportsbook Jesus, sir!”- Chief of the Blog
“AND WHAT DO WE SAY?!”- Sportsbook Jesus
“GO VADA!!”- Chief of the Blog & Sportsbook Jesus
“CALL SIDES!!”- Wayniac Nation
“Chief of the Blog! Dismiss the crew!”- Sportsbook Jesus
** Betting Trend percentages are provided by iOdds, and are current as of Sunday 12:00AM EST **