SBJ’s latest breaks down the prime time games this season more precisely than ever. As his season long class comes to an end, see who he has waiting for you in the week’s NFL Prime Time games.
2015 SNF/MNF OVERALL RECORD
Public: 39-53-1 (4-2)
The House: 53-39-1 (2-4)
Sportsbook Jesus: 52-40-1 (3-3)
Public: 1-1 (11-19-1)
Vegas: 1-1 (19-11-1)
Sportsbook Jesus: 1-1 (19-11-1)
Public: 1-1 (14-17)
Vegas: 1-1 (17-14)
Sportsbook Jesus: 1-1 (18-13)
Public: 2-0 (14-17)
Vegas: 0-2 (17-14)
Sportsbook Jesus: 1-1 (15-16)
In this week’s rundown we took a look at the trend classification breakdown. Now, let’s focus on the prime time side and total point results.
As you can see, the public has hung tough with The House in SNF. Although, 7-8 is still below .500, and that record won’t come close to winning you any cash.
Now, look at the MNF record. A people’s nosedive from 47% on Sunday night to 25% on Monday night. 4-11-1. That’s just plain awful.
The public currently hovers at a prime time side record of 37%. This is pretty much where they have been all year, but after breaking down the SNF and MNF records separately we can see that you have a much better chance of hitting a public side on a Sunday night rather than a Monday night…by a very significant 22% difference.
Let’s see if a similar drop in public wins occurs with concern to the total points, as well.
PRIME TIME TOTAL POINTS
Damn! 60%?! I find that SNF total points record absolutely astounding considering the people’s overall total points record is below .500 at 14-17(45%).
Then just as we saw with the side action between the two nights, the public’s total points action plummeted to 31% on MNF. Not as bad as their side winning percentage, but still terrible.
With the people’s side action, it drops 22%. On the total points, it drops 29%. So, what have we learned? Well, first of all, Vegas will probably let the second MNF PFP happen in three straight weeks only because I just called them on it.
Then, after they spite me to throw you off the scent, the public records will continue to sink from Sunday night to Monday night from here on out, and for years to come. That is until I eventually write another article about this type of trend. Then, you have to assume that the action immediately following said write-up will be a null and void week…but then every week that follows will run the theory like clockwork. Bitter spiteful bastards. Extremely immature behavior by Vegas, to say the least.
GMEN +7 @ VIKINGS -7
The wound from last night’s disaster is still so fresh that I can’t even spend a second looking at another NFC East team for the rest of the year without feeling violently ill. I am still fuming right now. So, I’m gonna keep this one short and sweet.
I hate the 81% on the GMEN Money line, and I think it might stay in the lower 70s by kickoff. I also don’t think the VIKINGS -7 makes a whole lot of sense with New York nearly defeating the only undefeated in the league last week. I get the fact that OBJ is suspended, but it’s not like he was setting the world on fire in that Carolina game until the final quarter anyway.
For the life of me, I just can’t find a good enough reason for the line to be that high, and that’s why I’m taking it. The people are currently on the VIKINGS -7, but I see that flipping by Sunday night. Even if the public stays on the -7, I’m still going to take it unless the public flips to the Minnesota Money line. I also see the public flipping from the under to the over per usual, so we already know how we’ll roll with that scenario.
VIKINGS -7 & UNDER 44
CLASSIFICATION: PFHP. Probable PFHC or HFS.
JUMP SHIP AUDIBLE: If this becomes a PFC, we take the GMEN +7 and stick with VIKINGS Money line. We avoid the over at all costs unless the public stays on this under.
BENGALS +3(+105) @ BRONCOS -3(-125)
Cincinnati starts off the year 8-0, and now they are a .500 team the last six weeks.
With Dalton still sidelined, A.J. McCarron tries to pull off what only Alex Smith and the Chiefs have done this season…win at Mile High Stadium. The Vikings, Packers. and Patriots couldn’t do it, and their combined record is 31-11. Not too shabby, Denver.
Is there even a question who I’m taking in this game? True, the Broncos have lost the last two weeks, but those games were on the road. Who in their right mind takes an unproven backup in Denver, though?
Plus, Denver is undefeated in prime time, and has cleaned my gambling clock on every occasion. I think it’s about time I finally bow down to my 2015 sportsbook nemesis, and join the darkside.
BENGALS +160 &….
CLASSIFICATION: HDC. I really don’t see this budging an inch. Even with Denver on a two game slide, the public has relied on the Broncos in every national game so far.
JUMP SHIP AUDIBLE: The Prime time Combo Audible will definitely be in effect with a SNF over. If the Sunday over hits, then we audible to the UNDER 39.5 to avoid an OVER/OVER combo for the second week in a row. Back-to-back OVER/OVER…could you imagine a more ridiculous two week outcome?
Goodnight, and good luck.