SBJ is back with his weekly prime time picks. Coming off back-to-back tough weeks, how does he see his luck turning and your wallet growing? Find out below.
2015 SNF/MNF OVERALL RECORD
Public: 29-45-1 (4-2)
The House: 45-29-1 (2-4)
Sportsbook Jesus: 41-33-1 (2-4)
(Note from the author SBJ: My apologies for the record numbers for last week. They were missing the two results from the Week 11 totals in each category. Not sure what happened there. I’m gonna chalk it up to an overdose of turkey, and leave it at that.)
Public: 1-1 (8-16-1)
Vegas: 1-1 (16-8-1)
Sportsbook Jesus: 1-1 (15-9-1)
Public: 1-1 (11-14)
Vegas: 1-1 (14-11)
Sportsbook Jesus: 1-1 (14-11)
Public: 2-0 (9-14)
Vegas: 0-2 (14-9)
Sportsbook Jesus: 0-2 (12-13)
I don’t get enough Erykah Badu in my life.
Maybe that’s what’s so great about her. She knows exactly how much of a social sample size to give us in order to always leave us wanting more. She’s very Daniel Day-Lewis in that sense. Completely off the media radar for what could be years, and then “Bam!”….Oscar. That’s Badu to me. She let’s you sleep on her social status just long enough, before she drops a track that wakes you, like a drill sergeant in boot camp.
There is something about this woman’s voice, man. I can’t explain the effect it has on me. I’m not even strictly speaking in terms of song. She could be doing something as simple as calmly talking in an interview, and I’m equally as captivated just listening to that.
When is someone gonna get on the ball and get her doing voiceover work? I should be hearing her in a new commercial at least once a month. This is Morgan Freeman-type level vocal cords we’re talking about, in terms of soul soothing sound. Your ears melt into it, like cotton candy on her tongue.
I swear, could somebody get her reading audiobooks? Please?! It could be an audiobook on organic chemistry, where I don’t have the slightest clue as to what the hell she’s even talking about…I could care less. I’ll still buy it all.
What were we here to talk about again? Oh, yeah. NFL sports betting, right? Excuse my diagnosed yet untreated case of ADD. Let’s get right to the action.
COLTS +7.5(-115) @ STEELERS -7.5(-105)
93% on the over, huh?
Love it. Is this going to be the fifth SNF over in a row? Definitely not. This is my lock of the week. Even if this drops into the high 70s, it’s still a lock. But, we already knew we were doing this from the Rundown, right?
After a Primetime Combo double over, and the SNF game having gone over for a month straight, I am going under without question. This SNF over nonsense won’t keep up. It’s time to cash in on this under, now. It’s not even Sunday afternoon, and we already have our first win (yesterday’s Rundown).
Let’s get to the lesson.
Haven’t had a new trick of the trade to teach in a while. Having a losing record for two straight weeks will do that, I guess. Well here is a great one that can really only be applied once you hit the last month of the season. The team records.
Once the season starts to grind to a halt, people start putting a lot of stock in the team records when looking at the spread they want to take. This is when I like to suggest you use the George Costanza Opposite Theory. The less sense a spread makes when you look at the records of both teams, the more inclined you should be to take it. In fact, you should always feel a little on edge when you take any action in general. The moments you start getting drawn towards action that seems safe and logical are usually the moments you should stay away.
This spread coupled with the team records is a perfect example. The spread is STEELERS -7.5(-105). This has all the makings of a line you should never touch, which is exactly why we will in the end.
First, it’s -7.5, which is a super trappy number. Secondly, the value is (-105), so it’s a covert dog. Finally, both of these team records are 6-5. How does a team that barely has a winning record get favored by more than a touchdown against a team with the exact same record? They are both 6-5, right? Wouldn’t it make more sense to have this be a three point spread at most? Big Ben is coming off a concussion…Matt Hasselbeck is undefeated as a backup in relief…why would I trust Pittsburgh to even win the game let alone cover a ridiculous spread like -7.5? It just doesn’t make a lick of sense! They have the exact same record!
STEELERS -7.5(-105) & UNDER 49
COWBOYS +3.5(-115) @ REDSKINS -3.5(-105)
Emotional Red Flag Alert. We’re at like a five for this one. My pick won’t be too irrational for this Monday nighter. Somehow my fantasy team has already been eliminated from the playoffs, so rooting for Dez to have at least three touchdowns won’t factor into this pick in any way.
Yup, fantasy season…done. My 3-9 team is playing this week just to avoid my second double digit losing season in franchise history. I have Carson Palmer, OBJ, Greg Olsen, and Chris Ivory….and I’m fighting to get four total wins? Yeah, fantasy football isn’t the dumbest and most random thing by any stretch of the imagination.
(Sarcastic eye roll)
I’m also technically an Eagles fan for the next three weeks, so a Redskins loss would definitely keep my division crown hopes barely breathing on life support. Plus, I’m all hopped up from Badu last week on The Breakfast Club, and hosting the Soul Train Awards, sooo….did I say I was at an emotional five for this game? I think it’s up to a six. It’s not that big of an emergency though.
COWBOYS +171 & UNDER 41
Goodnight, and good luck.