NFL Sundays with SBJ: The third time’s the charm, right?

This week, SBJ is back with his picks. It’s the holiday time of year. While everyone needs a little bit thicker wallets this time of year, emotions always run high. Don’t understand? Well, here… I’ll let SBJ explain.

2015 SNF/MNF OVERALL RECORD

Public: 25-43-1 (2-3-1)

The House: 43-25-1 (3-2-1)

Sportsbook Jesus: 39-29-1 (2-3-1)

SIDE

Public: 0-1-1 (7-13-1)

Vegas: 1-0-1 (13-7-1)

Sportsbook Jesus: 0-1-1 (13-7-1)

MONEYLINE

Public: 1-1 (10-11)

Vegas: 1-1 (11-10)

Sportsbook Jesus: 1-1 (13-8)

TOTAL POINTS

Public: 1-1 (7-14)

Vegas: 1-1 (14-7)

Sportsbook Jesus: 1-1 (11-10)

(SBJ Glossary of terms)

Remember how I told you in my first post that betting with your heart is a recipe for sportsbook disaster? Remember how I said I’d prove I don’t bet with my heart, by taking the Falcons to beat the Eagles straight up? Well, I should come clean and let you know that I’m an extremely emotional guy (if you didn’t clock that already), and not betting with my heart usually goes right out the window around Thanksgiving every year.

So what I’m saying is that as this course comes to a close, you will have to really take hold of the trend lessons I’ve taught you, and steer clear of my picks which are completely being bum rushed by my heart right now. You should especially consider taking a grain of rational salt with any of the following teams from here on out: Patriots, Seahawks, Panthers, and the Packers. For all the rest, I will try and keep it together emotionally, but I can’t make any promises. I become a gambling loose cannon around this time every year, so just keep that in mind with my side bets from here on out.

PATRIOTS -2.5 @ BRONCOS +2.5

OVER/UNDER: 43

You should definitely raise the emotional red flag for this one. On a scale of 1 to 10, this is probably a 14. Tom Brady against my sportsbook nemesis this year…the Denver Broncos.

I’m telling you right now I’m going with Brady, ok? I don’t care what the trends say. If I go 0-3, so be it. I’m not betting against Brady two weeks in a row. That’s just ungodly to me.

The Broncos have put quite a dent in my side betting record this season. In Week 3 at Detroit, I thought riding with them was a total trap, and they showed me up covering the three. In Week 8 hosting Green Bay, I thought Rodgers was the safe play, and they embarrassed me before halftime covering the three. Am I finally going to learn my lesson with this Broncos team?

Last week, I stated that the public had only hit one side bet in the last three weeks. Now, we are going on four weeks with the people having yet to cash in on a side bet. That streak has to end this week. It just has to, and I won’t hear another word about it.

The public is currently riding the PATRIOTS -2.5 at 67%, and the PATRIOTS Moneyline at 63%. Man, I hate taking a -2.5. It’s just such a trappy number to me, but I’m off the charts on the emotional scale for this Sunday nighter.

The people also have the UNDER 43 at 65%. We have yet to see a total points bet go off the board with the public staying on the under, so let’s assume that The House will have the under once again.

I bet against Denver in Week 3….I go 0-2 on side and moneyline action. I bet against Denver in Week 8….I go 0-2 again.

PATRIOTS -2.5 & OVER 43

CLASSIFICATION: PFC. Probable PFP.

JUMP SHIP AUDIBLE: This is practically guaranteed to flip to a PFP, with the public ending on the OVER 43, so we obviously go with The House on total points, which would give us the PFC, if the public still has the PATRIOTS -2.5. We ride with Brady regardless.

RAVENS +3(EVEN) @ BROWNS -3(-120)

OVER/UNDER: 41

The 3-7 Baltimore Ravens at the 2-8 Cleveland Browns.

RAVENS +155 & UNDER 41

CLASSIFICATION: HDS. Might flip to a PDC.

JUMP SHIP AUDIBLE: If the public wins on SNF — and the public ends on RAVENS +3 — then our Primetime Combo Audible switch is to the BROWNS -3 even though I hate rooting for the worst jerseys in the entire league.